More gas: Spanish reaction, some American press with a quasi-rebuttal...and my hesitant optimism

In an earlier post I wondered how grassroots Spanish socialists would react to their socialist government's own somewhat hostile reaction to Bolivia's gas moves. According to a story in leftwing Bolivian news web site Bolpress.com:

En una de las primeras reacciones de la sociedad civil española ante las actitudes del gobierno español, representantes de diversos colectivos y organizaciones se concentraron ayer viernes frente a la representación diplomática de Bolivia en Madrid, y entregaron una carta al embajador en la que expresan su apoyo y solidaridad con la nacionalización del petróleo y el gas en ese país.

(Roughly translated) In one of Spanish civil society's first reactions to the Spanish government's position, representatives of various collectives and organizations assembled on Friday in front of Bolivia's diplomatic station in Madrid and sent a letter to the embassador in which they expressed their support and solidarity with Bolivia's nationalisation of its oil and gas.

Meanwhile, the NYT has another story on Bolivia's nationalisation that, typically, refers to the idea that previous privatisation efforts have failed to bring prosperity to the country, but offers no evidence and fails to interview a single social movement leader. (I know I keep harping on this fact. It's key because Evo Morales and his political party MAS rose to power not on the strength of partisan tactics or strategy, but broad-based social movement activism, much of it in rejection of previous government gas policy.) Also, a decent piece from the Christian Science Monitor on Lula's difficult position balancing domestic politics and international left stuff.

As I and the Time story I link to in the previous post suggest, an 'expert' quoted by CSM thinks Chavez's influence on SA geopolitics may (now) be greater than Lula's:

"I think that Lula and Chávez have disputed the leadership role in South America and this was a defeat for Lula," says Rogerio Schmitt, a political analyst with the Tendencia consulting firm.

"That doesn't mean we are seeing an irreversible shift to the left. There won't be a domino effect, other countries won't take the same measures. I think the radical left won a battle but they have not won the war."

Also note said expert's implicit panic (despite his uncanny certainty about other countries' future actions) and reference to the 'radical left'--one that 'nationalizes' oil by hiking taxes and increasing its share in various other companies, typically from 48% to 51%. I suppose Cuba, on this scale, would be classified as radical-radical-radical-radical left.

Finally, check out Jim Shultz's cautious and thoughtful initial reaction to the announcement ("...as always with the complicated gas issue, 'the devil remains in the details'.") and then his raging reaction to unbalanced media coverage, including the commentary of typically moronic Thomas Friedman on CNN. More substantial analysis is promised on the Dem Centre blog. Meanwhile, Shultz, concludes:

Make what you will of the Bolivia decree this week but one thing is clear, the message. If it is under our ground it is ours and if foreign companies want a piece of the action they had better be prepared for real negotiations, not giveaways behind closed doors.

Also, on Saturday night, at a small meetings of ecologists, we got a pretty thorough rundown on the actual nationalization decree from a lawyer who knows his shit. The basic summary is that much of what's in the decree is actually restatement of old law, while other aspects are not exactly overspilling with legal legitimacy--in both cases, the decree is more than anything a political document. Nonetheless, the decree does represent substantial change, especially insofar as the government takes over the chain of production, marketing and sale, including setting the price of sale and amount to be extracted.

So, I think at this point, with the measures promised in this decree, if the gov't and YPFB--the state hydrocarbon company--do manage to get their shit together, there is the likelihood of pretty substantial positive change.